吉林水利

基于1961～2020年长达60年的气象数据，采用标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index）与R/S分析法结合短期历史数据，系统分析了该区域多时间尺度的干旱特征和干旱预测。研究结果表明，黑龙江省干旱程度以轻至中度干旱为主。在空间分布上，干旱呈现“西干东湿”的格局。全省在91.7%的年份中均出现区域性乃至全域性干旱，反映出干旱影响范围广泛。通过R/S分析方法对SPEI数据与历史数据相结合进行未来趋势预测，结果显示2027～2029年期间将进入枯水期，表明未来1～3年内黑龙江省可能面临较严峻的干旱形势。

This study systematically analyzed multi-temporal scale drought characteristics and drought prediction in the region.Based on 60 years of meteorological data from 1961 to 2020,the researchers combined the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) with R/S analysis method and short-term historical data.The results indicate that drought severity in Heilongjiang Province is mainly mild to moderate.In terms of spatial distribution,drought presents a pattern of “dry in the west and wet in the east”,with particularly significant drying trends in the western and southwestern regions.Notably,regional or even province-wide drought occurred in 91.7% of the years,reflecting the extensive impact range of drought.Through R/S analysis combined with SPEI data and historical data for future trend prediction,the results show that the period from 2027 to 2029 will enter a dry period,indicating that Heilongjiang Province may face a relatively severe drought situation in the next 1 to 3 years.In addition,different drought years show distinct drought characteristics,with higher drought risks in spring and autumn.This study provides important scientific basis for formulating drought prevention and control strategies in Heilongjiang Province.